Way Too Early Grammy Nomination Predictions, 2018 | List 2.0

It’s way too early to be discussing Grammy nominations. Then again, is it ever way too early to be discussing Grammy nominations?

Fall 2017 is upon us now! 2017 continues to progress at a rapid pace.  As the year grows shorter, we get closer and closer to Grammy nominations. Sure, there are still a couple of months before the nominations are revealed, but before you know it, some very lucky musicians will be in contention for music’s most prestigious awards.  While arguably list. 2.0 has a better read on who has a shot, the upcoming Grammys still feel ‘wide open’ – it’s that sort of year.  Examining only the big-four categories, here are my thoughts on who MIGHT be nominated for a Grammy.

Record of the Year

Bruno Mars, “That’s What I Like”

Ed Sheeran, “Shape of You”

Kendrick Lamar, “Humble.”

Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee ft. Justin Bieber, “Despacito”

*Logic ft. Alessia Cara & Khalid, “1-800-273-8255”

Other Possibilities: The Weeknd ft. Daft Punk, “Starboy”; Childish Gambino, “Redbone”; DJ Khaled ft. Justin Bieber, Quavo, Chance the Rapper & Lil Wayne, “I’m the One”; Migos ft. Lil Uzi Vert, “Bad and Boujee”; James Arthur, “Say You Won’t Let Go”; The Chainsmokers ft. Coldplay, “Something Just Like This”; Khalid, “Location”

Commentary: Record of the Year is consistently a loaded category, particularly with more weight placed on songs as opposed to album. Again, it’s hard to see this category without Bruno Mars, Kendrick Lamar, or Ed Sheeran.  Also, given its history-making run, “Despacito” seems like a lock. Originally, I rolled with The Weeknd (“Starboy”), but perhaps this is the year that an unlikely artist, Logic breaks through given the meaningful message and impact of “1-800-273-8255.”

Album of the Year

Bruno Mars, 24K Magic

Chris Stapleton, From a Room: Vol. 1

Ed Sheeran, Divide

*Foo Fighters, Concrete and Gold

Kendrick Lamar, DAMN.

Other Possibilities: The Weeknd, Starboy; The National, Sleep Well Beast, Arcade Fire, Everything Now; Childish Gambino, “Awaken, My Love!”; Father John Misty, Pure Comedy; Lorde, Melodrama; Jay-Z, 4:44; Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit, The Nashville Sound; Thomas Rhett, Life Changes

Commentary: This award used to be the crème de la crème.  It’s still the chief amongst them, but it’s lost a bit of its luster, given the dominance of records and songs.  Still, as aforementioned, Bruno Mars, Kendrick Lamar, and Ed Sheeran seem to be sitting pretty. If you have to pick a ‘weak-link’ of the three, it’s Bruno Mars only because his album arrived much earlier.

Beyond those three, things get a bit more interesting.  Originally, I was sold on the fact that Chris Stapleton had a shot at scoring his second consecutive nod in this category. Even so, I stated From a Room: Vol. 1 had less buzz than Traveller. At this point, while From a Room: Vol. 1 seems like the most sensible country offering with a shot at the top prize, I’m not convinced it will be nominated. For now, it plays the role of Sturgill Simpson’s A Sailor’s Guide to Earth.  The question is, could a crowd-pleasing, modern ‘country’ album like Thomas Rhett’s Life Changes get a nod?

Foo Fighters (Concrete and Gold) join this edition of the list for a couple of reasons.  (1) The hard rock band has been in this position twice before (Echoes, Silence, Patience, and Grace and Wasting Light), (2) There’s usually a rock representative (3) This album is respectable enough to earn recognition.  The above-mentioned reasons considered, DON’T LOCK THIS ONE IN.

So, there are three potential locks, and two question marks. The Weeknd (Starboy) is still a contender, but don’t bet on it.  Also, Stapleton could be replaced by an alternative album, such as The National (Sleep Well Beast) or Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit (The Nashville Sound).  I’m still toying with the idea that Arcade Fire (Everything Now) has a shot here given an unexpected nomination and win in 2011.  But, it’s nebulous right now.

Song of the Year

Bruno Mars, “That’s What I Like”

Ed Sheeran, “Castle on the Hill” or “Shape of You”

James Arthur, “Say You Won’t Let Go”

Kendrick Lamar, “Humble.”

*Logic ft. Alessia Cara & Khalid, “1-800-273-8255”

Other Possibilities:  Harry Styles, “Sign of the Times”; Ed Sheeran, “Shape of You”; Father John Misty, “Pure Comedy”; Kesha, “Praying”; Brett Young, “In Case You Didn’t Know”

Commentary: So, what’s the difference between record and song of the year again?  Lately, the lines have truly become blurred.  Song of the Year is a songwriter’s award, but examining the songs of late 2016 and 2017, how many truly great songs are there? Bruno Mars, Kendrick Lamar, and Ed Sheeran continue to have chance in this category.  Of the three, Sheeran has the closest edge of a song should “Castle on the Hill” be nominated.  That said, “Shape of You” might be chosen, and that’s a stark difference.

Logic joins the fold with “1-800-273-8255,” thanks to its messaging, relevance, and basically, blowing up. Is it the crème de la crème when it comes to songwriting? No, but, in a year where it’s tough to pinpoint songs as opposed to records that stand out, it has as good of a shot as any.

Harry Styles still has a case with “Sign of the Times.” The problem is, is “Sign of the Times” big enough? Personally, I’m not sure, hence why it’s removed as a pick for a nomination right now. James Arthur had a hit with “Say You Won’t Let Go,” quietly ascending up the charts.  Again, this song has a case for record of the year, yet, compared to some of the field, it’s got more song qualities. Perhaps one of Harry Styles or James Arthur makes the cut – or neither.  At this point, Song of the Year remains a toss-up.

Best New Artist

Brett Young

James Arthur

Khalid

Migos

* SZA

Other Possibilities: Blackbear; Hailee Steinfeld; Julia Michaels; Kane Brown; Kodak Black; Lil Uzi Vert; Post Malone; SZA

Commentary: As tough as the song of the year category is to predict, best new artist may be tougher. One artist selected above seems like the closest to a lock – Khalid.  Even so, perhaps Khalid’s youth hurts his stock. While Khalid isn’t surefire, he seems to be in a better place than the others on the list. Brett Young had more buzz earlier in the year, thanks to his hit “In Case You Didn’t Know.” He’s nowhere near being a lock – no offense.

James Arthur may be closer than Brett Young, thanks to the massive success of “Say You Won’t Let Go,” which shockingly missed the top-10 on the Hot 100.  British artists have done well here in the past – Adele and Sam Smith come to mind. As for Migos, it depends on how the Recording Academy views them.  Culture wasn’t their first project, but it was their breakout project. For SZA, she’s had a respectable year with her official debut album, Ctrl.  She has a shot, but it wouldn’t be shocking if she weren’t nominated either.

Photo Credits: Atlantic, Interscope, Mercury, Republic, RCA